Will I Catch A Fish By May 1st?

That was the question I asked here at the blog in 2013 on this date. I put my chances in that blog post at 10%. I then lost a jumpin' bullhead and snagged a carp, and did not catch a fish in April. I put the odds at 50/50 for this year. What I've got going in my favor are the sun and warm temps which may bring some bullheads into the GOMH. What I've got going against me are the sun and warm temps which may bring other fisherpersons to the GOMH. With the way the forecast looks, I am highly confident ice comes off the area lakes, minus Mille Lacs, sometime this upcoming week. And if I don't get a fish by Monday, I'm pretty sure I'll be catch one by Friday.