1st Open Water Trip And Bullhead Odds For March (80% Against)

I made my first casts at the Grumpy Old Man Hole tonight. A day earlier than my first cast in open water last year.  It is slightly more open than it was at this point last year, but there was a lot more water around last year and the snowmelt wasn't over yet. The water is low and unsurprisingly I got skunked. The snowmelt for this year is 99% over at this point. When I was out there tonight I thought the odds were slightly against me catching a fish this month. I thought 55/40 against. A closer look at the weather has me backing off those rosy thoughts. I think the odds are 80% that I don't get any bullhead this month. The water is too low and it doesn't look like it will warm up enough to send fish shallow until April. I think this little warm windy stretch we were in accelerated ice off. I am now eyeing April 8th, the same as last year.