Last January, I wrote the above about Platte/Sullivan when the blind tournament initially went on the schedule. I was highly confident if my lakes were drawn, I would have a pretty good chance of having a really good day. Fast forward to now after struggling all year to get bites with so many good Fall areas being complete trash or almost trash due to low water and the proliferation of carpetweed in Platte Lake. Three of the areas I was thinking about specifically back then have been an extremely rough go this year. The weed set up this year is garbage in so many formerly productive spots. The spots that aren't I have pounded relentlessly. Some places that still look fishy haven't given me anything.
I really should have taken a couple of days to search out some new non-froggy spots. Oh well, that is water under the bridge now.
Because the lakes are off-limits today, I put together a spreadsheet of all my spots/areas. I then gave a percentage for my confidence level in catching a fish there right now and in catching one 3lbs or above. In my mind, I have 13 spots where the chances of getting a keeper are better than 50%, and pretty much every spot has a 50% chance of getting a quality bite. Not bad at first glance. However, many of them are either a small one or two fish spot or a wide area that is only good for a bite or two. The highest probability of getting into fish is 60%, which I have for one area on Sullivan and two areas on Sullivan. I will have to see what the wind does, but I tentatively have my starting spot picked. It will be interesting if there is a morning bite or if we have to wait for things to warm up.